CBA heading lower

IMO CBA has further to fall. Minimum target is $48. If that fails to hold, next target would be $46. Any rally should find resistance at around $51 - possibly $52.

Rally on life-support, barely breathing

The short term rally in the CBA share price is almost dead. A price fall below $51.46 will invalidate the Elliott Wave count for the move up which began in November 2010. It will not however invalidate the longer term picture - specifically the move up from the January 2009 low. That move has not even retraced 38% of that rally. So there is still lots of room for the price to retrace while maintaining the Elliott Wave count on a weekly chart.
Here's the daily chart.















Below is the weekly chart. One significant point about this chart is that from an Elliott Wave perspective the price is in a 4th wave correction. This is usually a difficult time for those trading the stock and can sometimes be quite demoralising. Sometimes, you can't be sure you have come out the 4th wave correction until the 5th wave is almost over. The other significant point is that while the chart holds this formation, the longer term target is around the $67 to $70. Keep that in mind as the price retraces. Keep in mind also that a retracement back to around $47 or even $42 is not out of the question.

CBA falls below trendline support but Elliott Wave count still pointing up

CBA's share price fell below trendline support on Wednesday but failed to close below it. In the meantime the Elliott Wave picture on the daily chart remains positive although it is now unlikely the price will exceed the mid-February high in the short term. The correction has been just a bit too deep to be considered normal profit taking even allowing for the ex-dividend factor. A fall below $51.90 at this stage would increase the odds that more than an ordinary correction is playing out.

Click chart to enlarge